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다윗왕의 인구조사에 왜 신이 분노했나
[이재형의 통계 이야기] ①
2018년 10월 04일 (목) 22:49:09 이재형 박사 jhlee01@kdi.re.kr

민주주의는 건전한 공론장 없이는 성립되지 않는다. 공론장이 건전해지려면 객관적 현실 인식을 공유해야 하며 그 바탕이 되는 게 통계다. 통계가 흔들리면 정책도 여론도 왜곡될 수밖에 없다. 가짜뉴스도 통계 왜곡에서 출발한다. 언론인은 통계 해석을 잘못하면 ‘사회의 공적’이 될 수 있지만 잘하면 ‘해석특종’을 할 수도 있다. 통계전문가인 이재형 박사가 통계에 얽힌 재미있는 얘기들을 풀어낸다. 한국개발연구원(KDI)에서 일하는 그는 <국가통계시스템발전방안> <한국의 산업조직과 시장구조> 등 많은 연구와 저술을 해왔고 통계청 통계개발원장을 역임했다. [편집자]


   
▲ 이재형 박사

다윗은 이스라엘 왕으로서, 소년 시절에 돌팔매로 거인 골리앗을 때려 눕혔다. 이야기가 처음부터 옆으로 빠지지만, 대체 어린 소년이 키가 270㎝나 됐다는 중무장 거인을 돌멩이로 한 방에 죽이는 게 가능했을까? 이 사건의 진실을 둘러싸고 <히스토리 채널> 등에서 실제로 실험을 해보기도 했다. 옛날에는 돌멩이가 쓸모 있는 전쟁 무기였고, 돌멩이를 던지는 도구가 많이 개발됐다. 다윗이 사용한 돌멩이 던지기 도구를 재현하여 실험해본 결과 날아가는 속도가 시속 200㎞를 넘었다. 충분히 투구를 깨트리고 사람을 죽일 수 있는 힘이다.

다윗왕이 궁금했던 백성의 수

다윗은 왕이 된 뒤 수많은 전쟁에서 이겨 이스라엘을 강하고 부유한 나라로 키웠다. 태평스런 어느 날 오후 느긋한 시간을 즐기던 다윗왕의 머리에 갑자기 한 생각이 스쳤다. ‘대체 우리나라에는 백성이 몇 명이나 될까?’ 오랜 기간 이스라엘을 다스렸지만, 다윗 왕은 그때까지 자기가 다스리는 백성의 수를 몰랐다. 그는 즉시 장군 요압을 불러 “그대가 이스라엘에 가서 백성의 수를 세어보고 나에게 그 수를 보고하라”고 명령했다. 그러자 요압이 반발했다. “전하, 이건 안 되는 일입니다. 신이 노하십니다.” 그렇지만 다윗은 말을 듣지 않았다. “이건 어명이다. 실행하라!”

왕의 명령을 받은 장군들이 인구조사관이 되어 조사에 착수했다. 요압은 약 10개월간 조사를 해서 이스라엘 백성의 수를 보고했다. 이때 백성이란 무장 가능한 남자를 말하며, 여자·노인·어린아이는 포함하지 않았다. 이스라엘에는 무장 가능한 장정이 80만 명, 유다에는 50만 명이 사는 것으로 조사됐다. 신은 이 사실을 알고 크게 노했다. “너는 내게 너무나 사악한 짓을 하였다. 어찌 그런 죄를 범했나?” 신의 분노에 다윗은 손이 발이 되도록 빌었다. 제발 용서하고, 속죄할 길을 알려달라고.

관대한 신은 다윗을 용서하는 대신 세 가지 벌을 제시하고 그 가운데 하나를 선택하라고 했다. 첫째, 3년간 흉년과 기아에 시달릴 건지, 둘째, 3개월간 전쟁에서 패배하고 학살을 당할 건지, 셋째, 3일간 전염병에 시달릴 건지, 선택하라는 거였다. 어느 벌이나 모두 가혹했지만, 다윗이 생각해보니 그래도 세 번째 벌이 가장 피해가 적을 것 같아 그것을 택했다. 그 결과 3일간 7만의 백성이 전염병으로 죽었다. 전체 백성의 5%를 넘는 대재앙이었다.

   
▲ 소년 '다윗'과 장수 '골리앗'의 싸움. ⓒ 뷔르텐베르크 주립도서관, 슈투트가르트

인구통계는 신만이 아는 통치의 출발점 

우리는 여기서 한 가지 의문이 떠오른다. 도대체 사람 수를 좀 세었다고 해서 그것이 뭐 그리 큰 죄라고 가혹한 벌을 내리나? 신이 너무 한 거 아닌가? 신은 도대체 왜 그렇게 분노했을까? 아무도 모른다. 신의 마음을 인간이 어떻게 알 수 있나? 짐작은 해 볼 수 있다. 사람을 다스리는 일은 오직 신만의 권한이다. 왕이란 단지 신을 대신해서 백성을 돌보는 사람에 지나지 않는다. 백성의 수를 안다는 것은 통치의 시작이며, 따라서 다윗이 백성 숫자를 센 것은 신의 권위에 도전한 것이다. 인구통계는 통치의 출발점이며 신만이 알고 있어야 하는데, 다윗은 신의 흉내를 낸 것이다.

이 일화는 기독교 문화에서 두고두고 교훈이 되었다. 기독교 문화권에 드는 국가에서는 인구조사를 하는 것을 극도로 경계하였다. 17, 18세기경 영국에서 인구조사를 하려하자 본국은 물론 식민지에서도 국민들이 강력히 반발했다. 1755년 영국 의회에서 인구조사를 위한 법안을 검토하자 극렬한 반대운동이 일어났다.

동양에서 먼저 발달한 인구조사

이에 견주어 동양 문화권에서는 예로부터 인구조사가 활발히 이루어졌다. 모든 통계 가운데 가장 기본적인 통계는 인구통계이며, 이는 모든 통계의 출발점이기도 하다. 중국에서는 기원전부터 인구조사를 했다는 기록이 있으며, 우리나라에서도 삼한시대에 인구조사를 했다는 기록이 있다. 고려시대에는 인구조사를 담당하는 부서도 있었다고 한다. 여기서 잠깐 재미있는 통계하나. 고려시대에는 가구당 인원수가 얼마나 되었을까? 그때는 대가족제였으니 10명, 20명 정도 되지 않았을까? 그런데 뜻밖에 적다. 평균 5명이 안 되었던 것으로 나타나고 있다. 지금과 크게 다를 것이 없는 숫자다.

이처럼 동양은 서양보다 통계가 일찍 발달했다. 국가를 운영하는 데 훨씬 더 과학적인 정보를 가지고 있었다는 말도 된다.

* 다윗의 일화는 버나드 코헨((Bernard Cohen) <The Triumph of Numbers: How Counting Shaped Modern Life>을 참고했다.


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2019-05-07 18:24:20
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2019-05-06 20:13:54
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2019-05-04 00:14:56
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2019-05-01 22:55:27
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2019-05-01 12:10:54
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2019-04-27 12:39:26
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2019-04-26 12:26:14
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2019-04-25 22:38:04
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2019-04-25 21:35:39
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2019-04-25 11:37:39
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2019-04-25 07:18:56
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2019-04-24 23:39:33
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2019-04-24 17:02:56
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2019-04-24 03:56:12
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2019-04-23 15:46:13
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2019-04-22 19:45:17
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2019-04-22 10:46:40
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2019-04-22 00:18:09
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2019-04-21 10:41:52
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2019-04-20 19:26:19
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2019-04-17 19:40:27
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2019-04-17 07:52:49
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2019-04-16 19:41:13
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2019-04-16 09:05:08
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2019-04-16 08:54:41
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2019-04-15 21:08:06
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2019-04-15 10:45:38
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2019-04-14 22:13:12
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2019-04-14 00:34:15
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2019-04-13 16:36:07
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2019-04-13 11:29:02
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2019-04-13 03:29:22
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2019-04-12 03:49:45
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2019-04-07 11:41:18
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2019-04-06 11:51:50
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2019-04-05 20:07:42
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2019-04-05 13:17:06
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2019-04-05 07:41:05
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2019-04-04 18:47:21
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2019-04-03 20:19:14
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2019-04-02 21:50:54
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2019-04-02 10:15:05
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2019-03-27 13:06:30
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2019-03-26 23:46:44
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2019-03-26 05:05:18
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2019-03-25 02:12:22
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2019-03-24 12:28:49
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2019-03-23 20:32:00
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2019-03-23 04:19:37
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2019-03-22 11:18:21
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2019-03-22 10:12:54
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2019-03-22 01:16:44
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2019-03-21 12:01:29
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2019-03-21 05:29:32
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2019-03-20 22:57:53
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2019-03-20 02:04:53
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2019-03-19 14:01:20
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2019-03-19 11:25:50
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2019-03-18 23:42:20
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2019-03-18 13:16:27
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2019-03-18 03:05:53
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2019-03-17 12:24:00
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2019-03-16 12:17:25
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2019-03-16 07:18:05
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2019-03-15 15:09:03
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2019-03-15 09:39:20
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2019-03-14 10:28:32
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2019-03-13 05:49:48
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2019-03-12 10:37:48
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2019-03-11 18:50:00
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2019-03-11 09:13:21
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2019-03-11 02:01:36
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2019-03-10 19:41:56
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2019-03-10 12:47:31
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2019-03-10 07:45:41
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2019-03-09 14:29:44
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2019-03-08 23:00:37
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2019-03-08 00:33:42
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2019-03-06 06:37:06
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2019-03-05 18:03:01
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2019-03-02 23:02:55
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2019-03-02 13:42:07
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2019-03-01 14:35:01
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2019-02-28 10:22:17
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2019-02-27 23:19:01
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2019-02-26 16:48:10
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2019-02-25 15:42:29
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